This evolution is attributable to that of the trade surplus, which was reduced vis-à-vis all the partner areas. Prices of products primarily expressed in Yen have evolved favorably during these years, while the terms of trade in manufactured products remained almost stable despite strong variations in the exchange rate of yen to dollar. Ultimately, the reduction of the surplus current is attributable to movements in product volumes manufacturing: strong deceleration of exports, acceleration imports.
The Yen and foreign trade from Japan
Changes in the yen-dollar exchange rate are an important element explanatory statement of the deterioration of trade in terms of volume of products manufactured since 1985, despite very active margin from Japanese exporters. This behavior is particularly marked and is still visible in the sectors subject to of import by Western countries.
Product exchanges manufactures are marked by rapid polarization, exports while the imports concern banal products. This polarization goes hand in hand with the appreciated trend of the Yen and is reinforced by the investments direct actions abroad by Japan.
Direct investment is only a small fraction capital outflows. All of these outings are much higher than the current account surplus, which explains why partly the depreciation of the Yen. The surplus of the current account is likely to increase moderately during coming quarters despite the rise in the price of oil.
The current Japan’s account surplus
Japan’s current account surplus had risen sharply during the first half of the eighties, making this country the first creditor worldwide. During this period, the other industrial countries had pressed for it to reduce this surplus. Or this one has been dwindling for some time, but this is generating more fears that relief at a time when the global needs of capital appears to be growing rapidly. The probable evolution of the Japanese current account is therefore an important
in any international forecast exercise.
The current account surplus does not find, however, far must, its exact counterpart in gross capital outflows. The role growing financial intermediation played by Japan since the beginning of the eighties caused a sharp increase in the inflow as well as capital outflows. Among these, flows
direct investment play an important role in medium-to-long-term economic conditions but do not constitute the most large fraction of the masses involved.
The Yen rate has also depreciated sharply over the quarters in recent years after having experienced several semesters of lively appreciation. Here are some elements of analysis concerning
the interaction of these different elements:
· current balance,
· flow of capital exchange rate,
· movements and level over the decades seventies and eighties.
He deduces that the surplus of the balance current, which started to increase again in the second quarter of the year 1990 would have, in the absence of shock on the price of oil, capped after a few semesters to move towards a ten medium-term decline.
Yen and the future of the Japanese economy
Since the beginning of the launch of the ABENOMICS policy in 2012, Japan is coming out of the economic slump. ABENOMICS is the economic policy of the Abe government, whose name is already established in the press world.
It is based on three principles:
· monetary policy bold;
· flexible fiscal policy;
· growth that involves the private sector.
Thanks to the depreciation of the Yen, the increase in the value of equities and companies with an improvement in the employment situation, we can see that the Japanese economy is starting to
However, even if the economic situation with the future of Japanese economy improves gradually, she is not yet in the phase of the increase of household consumption and investment of companies, so we can not yet say that there is a good recycling of the economy.
Therefore there’s a need to continue strengthening the competitiveness and the reactivation of Japan’s economy with a growth strategy. The new growth strategy is based on the encouragement of new technologies such as IoT (Internet of Things), robotic technologies and biotechnology, the development of international competitiveness in agriculture and the promotion of tourism and the promotion of the role of women in society.
Strengthening the economic partnership with other countries is also important for Japan’s growth strategy. The Japanese population has begun to decline since a few years, and to maintain the vitality of the economy it is important to promote economic integration world by strengthening competitiveness.